The Myth of the Hot Sports Betting Handicapper

The most frequent means of marketing sports services is some variant on the subject that is so “hot” and therefore must pay you your money and follow your moves. Corrupt services do this by creating all kinds of confusing and contradictory rating systems and hyperbolic descriptions for their games. How many times have you heard a fan claim to be “16-2 on their least-star plays of the month at the 500-star MWC” or say their “Southern Conference total of the month is 60% for life”?

Basically the bottom feeders in this industry can cut and cut their stats in many ways to make themselves look “hot”. Or they can do what many do and simply lie about their performance. When I started out as a sports handicapper, there was no internet (at least as it is today) and I had to rely on a marker for line updates and scoring. This scoreboard was sponsored by a group of vendors who don’t stand out for their veracity, and you had to go through a few pitches to get your 900 numbers before reaching the scores. A bit of a Faustian negotiation, to say the least, but it was an effective way to keep up with pre-internet dark age scores.

So one night we are at a party organized by a child that we did not like too much. My team and I were racking our brains to come up with some bad pranks to pull off the guy. Someone had the idea to accumulate about 900 # charges on our brand phone bill. Since there is no 900 # directory assistance, I got the only 900 # I could remember: one of the dialer vendors who had punctured their digits in my memory through sheer force of repetition. link vao dafabet

For the sake of discussion, I decided to write down the seller’s NBA plays. I had less faith in his disability ability than in a forecast based on a divination rod or Ouija board, but since I wasn’t paying for the call, I thought I’d just see how the guy was doing. I wrote his plays and verified his performance the next morning.

To his credit, the tout was 5-3 in his 8 plays. By any criteria, a 5-3 night is a solid performance. Later that day I called the scoreboard and waited for the vendor to start singing about their 5-3 night. To my surprise, the seller did not say a word about his 5-3 night. That’s because he was also bragging about his legendary 7-1 performance the day before.

Now, I understand that the revelation that the boiler room says his performance is on par with “professional wrestling is false” or “games at the fair are not on the rise” as self-evident truths. However, what I’m trying to clarify is that the desire to be the “hot handicap” is so great that the seller felt he had to embellish a solid performance the night before.

So despite the fact that some handicaps like their performance, what’s wrong with trying to ride the hot handicap? A lot: Not only is it an ineffective way to assess the skills of a handicapper, but it also has a number of statistical and theoretical shortcomings.

The simplest way to explain what I’m talking about is to borrow a disclaimer that you will hear in every commercial for a mutual fund: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” The sports betting environment, such as stocks, commodities, and other financial instruments, is a market and is subject to a number of the same trends as other financial institutions (what economists call “market dynamics”).

The fact that the success or failure of a sports bet depends to some degree on the “whims” of a market (odds and point spreads) and to a greater extent on other external events beyond the bettor’s control exacerbates what is already it is a simple matter. Logic: What a handicap does over a period of time (be it a day, week, month, or season) has no intrinsic correlation between the performance of a handicap one year and the next. In other words, the sports betting market and the random patterns of events that act on them don’t care if I hit 60% last year. If I don’t do my job, I cut down on the numbers, get good betting prices, and take a few breaks along the way, I may end up being defeated, regardless of how well I have performed in a later period of time.

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